Sunday, October 21, 2007

Paulson's Crash

US Treasury Secretary Seriously Messes Up

Blaming Friday's mini crash on the 20th anniversary of the 1987 stock market collapse and a few earnings misses is not even close to being on target.

The blame for Friday's collapse can be squarely placed on the shoulders of US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. Paulson hosted his G-7 contemporaries last week in Washington to discuss exchange rates and other policies, however, while publicly stating the US supports a strong dollar, there did not appear to be much conviction behind his statements. Word has it, the US did little to support a reversal in the weak dollar--particularly against the euro--and this left the other treasury secretaries not very happy. Rather than direct their statements of rejection at the US, they chose to blame China instead with further calls for yuan appreciation. As the news leaked out, the US market began to tank.

Paulson's move not to support a reversal of the US dollar against the euro follows the formation of the SIV fund to provide financial support for off-balance sheet debt held by the major money-center banks. SIVs are not very different from what Enron did and in certain ways is worse since these institutions have decades of experience at knowing what is and what is not on- or off-balance sheet financing. Paulson still has not clearly detailed the reasoning behind the move.

Mr. Paulson also had few good things to say about housing this week. While many of the seeds for the housing collapse were put in place prior to his tenure at the Treasury, why he felt the need to remind the markets of what it already knows, leaves one to ponder. Paulson was pretty much stating the obvious.

Friday's stock market mini-crash should be called Paulson's Crash. He is bailing out his pals on Wall Street with the SIVs fund and he will not help the Europeans get out of their difficult position of too strong of a currency who now have decided to turn their blame for the US' incompetence to China. Forcing appreciation of the yuan when Chinese officials are working very hard to slowdown their economy and stop their run away stock market is a recipe for disaster and unfair for the Chinese. As the yuan appreciates, this will only bring more money into China and drive an overly inflated stock market even higher.

Paulson falls into a long line of Bush Administration appointees who are charismatic, are excellent at articulating a thought and are willing to express their views to the world. However, there is only one problem--whether it is Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz or Paulson--it is that they are always wrong.

Unlike Rubin and Corzine, former Goldman Sachs partners who have demonstrated some serious success after leaving the investment firm, it looks like Paulson is not following the same path.

Monday, October 15, 2007

Fox Business Channel

Tarzan Meets Bambi

Fox Business Channel, in its long-awaited debut, launched its new post-trading show called Happy Hour.

For those who missed the show, it is set in a New York bar and hosted by Cody Willard, a Wall Street investor with a Johnny Weissmuller haircut but without the physique, and Bambi, a well-endowed actress on loan from a small San Fernando Valley film company. When asked why she took the Fox anchor position, Bambi responded: "It was the first job offer I ever got that did not require taking an AIDS test."

This blogger has since learned that John Holmes and Tracy Lords will be hosting tomorrow's show.

Soon after the launching of the show, it was said that the ground above long-time Wall Street Journal editor Robert Bartlett moved as he was rolling over in his grave. This blogger was also informed from a well-connected source at Craigslist that the job-placement website got a record number of hits as jounalists for the Journal sought to find new employment following the shows' debute.

A lawyer, who negotiated the terms and conditions of Rupert Murdoch's acquisiton of Dow Jones, said the parties negotiated every possible detail ensuring the editorial integrity of the Journal. Even prohibiting the global-media magnate from posting a Page 3 Girl in the 100-plus-year-old business paper.

However, it has since been learned that Murdoch found an out in the contract that will allow him to post the Page 3 Girl on the cover of the newspaper. It is our understanding that the first girl to grace the cover of the Journal will be Bambi, the host of today's Happy Hour. And on her breast will be written: "Fox: America's Business Channel." And yes, her endowment is such that it will be able to display the entire slogan.

As a final note, the Tarzan & Bambi hour followed an interview with Alan Greenspan.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

Corporate Credit Crunch

Saving The Economy or Saving Their Ass?

US banks are going to set up an $80 billion fund to limit the credit crunch, Reuters reports. The fund will buy ailing mortgage securities and other assets in a bid to prevent the credit crunch from further hurting the global economy, anonymous sources said who were too embarrassed to disclose their identity for the newswire's story.

How noble for these titans of industry to perform such a task for the masses.

The source neglected to say that it was the lack of controls and self-discipline of management at these money-center banks that created the crunch in the first place. Enticed by huge bonuses, there was little concern for the well being of the US economy when no-money-down mortgages and leveraging transactions at 8x EBITDA were being committed to ad-infinitum.

The Reuters report goes on to say representatives from the U.S. Treasury have organized conversations among top global banks, as financial institutions grow increasingly concerned that a certain type of investment fund linked to banks may have to dump billions of dollars of repackaged loans onto financial markets. The reason why Treasury officials have to speak to global banks is due to the outstanding job US bankers did selling this junk to investors from around the world.

Further, US bankers are saying that a fire-sale of assets could lift borrowing costs globally, trigger big losses from investors and force banks to further write down some holdings on their balance sheets. No kidding! That is what is supposed to happen after you make bad loans.

This news report shows that the depth and duration of this debt problem is coming home to roost. The credit evaluation process for many of these loans has moved away from the investment banking departments to the CFO's department at many of the major money-center banks.

A month ago bankers were claiming it would take three to six months to work through the $300 billion pipeline of private equity transactions. But, after having some success with financing the First Data transaction, it is not going so well for the other deals. Banks have to write the checks for the commitments they have made with limited interest by lenders to scoop up the debt in other transactions. Supposedly, private transactions are being negotiated to place this debt with big discounts being suggested--meaning the writedowns that big money-center banks took in this recent quarter will continue in upcoming quarters.

The bankers' plea to suggest that they are attempting to help the US economy by setting up this fund is pure hogwash. The fact of the matter is that regulators and CFOs are now running the show. And they are concluding that these masters-of-universe investment bankers did some real dumb things and have a big hole to climb out of.

Saturday, October 13, 2007

The U.S. Dollar

Negative Sentiment of the Dollar Continues To Build

Gold, the Canadian dollar, the euro and the lowering of short-term interest rates does not bode well for the U.S. dollar. Or at least that is what conventional wisdom is saying. You will be hard pressed to find a financial TV show or publication saying anything positive about the greenback these days.

Arguments are a plenty: the dollar is weak because the Fed added to much liquidity to U.S. economy in 2001 and 2002, the dollar is weak because of our huge trade and budget deficits, the dollar is weak because we are a people who are undisciplined and cannot save. The arguments go on and on. Someone in Barron's actually wrote that the dollar is weak because inflation is high. Outside of housing there does not seem to be a lot of price deflation, but taking the leap to suggest inflation is pervasive enough to cause the dollar to weaken is somewhat of a stretch.

As we have blogged a few times this past month, the U.S. dollar is weak because currency traders have a trend-is-your-friend mentality. They will lever up and follow that trend until they get spanked by central banks. Currency reversals are driven by Treasury secretaries working with central bankers to change the direction of a currency. Expect that to soon happen particularly with the U.S. dollar reversing against the euro. The seeds are already being sown to spank those currency traders good and to drive the U.S. dollar higher. The U.S. economy remains the place to be and the global leader in new business creation. Do not sell the dollar short, go long the greenback.

Financial Stocks

Is It Time To Jump Into Financial Stocks?

Historically, when the Fed has started cutting rates, investing in financial stocks has proven profitable for investors. Will the same hold true in today's easing cycle? Probably not.

The Bear Stearns (BSC) model for its mortgage business might point to problems ahead for the financial industry in general. The financial services industry has done an outstanding job during the past twenty years developing new products and marketing them to institutions who specialize in buying these new instruments -- primarily hedge funds. With mortgage hedge funds, publicly traded vehicles such as mortgage REITs and other investors now shutting their doors to these products, who gets stuck with them? You guessed it! The investment firms and large commercial banks.

Now let's go to $300 billion of private equity debt that needs to be placed. Who is buying that up? While some institutions are, much of it is staying on the books of the investment firms and banks. Will funds be formed to invest in this debt? Yes, but it will take time.

Also, a point worth noting is that much of the debt for private equity deals is in the form of leveraged loans -- meaning floating rate debt. If a series of events unfold where these interest rates have to be set higher, many companies that have gone private will have a tough time making their interest payments. Not too different than what is currently happening to homebuyers who purchased homes with adjustable rate mortgages.

Further, as the Fed starts priming the pump to keep the economy going, the liquidity will not flow into the sector that just went bust. Following the tech and telecom bubble of the late 1990s, when the Fed dropped rates, money went into real estate, not back into tech and telecom. As this current easing cycle unfolds, money is unlikely to flow back into the mortgage market and PE deals.

While the investment firms and commercial banks are not going bust like many did in the earlier 1980s and early 1990s, they will have trouble growing earnings for the next few years. Also, it appears the Fed's easing cycle may not create the steep yield curve for financial firms to make easy money. All totaled, earnings growth in the financial sector will be hard to come by during the next few years and the stocks' performance will mirror the companies' inconsistent earnings performance.

Friday, October 12, 2007

AT&T and Verizon

Don't Forget About The Large Telcos

While investors are focusing on the ensuing battle between AT&T (T) and the big cable companies over providing voice, video and data to the home, many might need to be reminded that the telco giants have a massive enterprise business that is ripe to benefit from improved pricing.

Remember there are few companies that can provide high-level enterprise service on a nationwide basis -- AT&T and Verizon Communications (VZ) are pretty much it. You would be hard pressed to name another.

Qwest Communications (Q) has not said much about what it wants to do with its fiber network and although Level 3 Communications (LVLT) is picking up its business, it will not be enough to threaten the positions of the two behemoths.AT&T and Verizon's stock performance, while doing well recently, has been held back by investors wondering where the revenue growth is.

Now it appears that growth might be ready to return. Jim Crowe, Level 3's CEO, said a few months back that one issue the industry no longer has is pricing, a big change from a few years ago.Verizon and AT&T have been written about more positively over the past few days, as Bear Stearns and Citigroup are both recommending the stocks. Sometimes the best stocks are in the most obvious places. AT&T and Verizon are two large companies that are worth looking at again.